Three Bets in a 1.5°C+ World
September 5th, 2026
Via Todd Cort’s Real Price of Risk, an interesting forecast of which parts of the global economy will bear the cost of rising temperatures and which parts will capture value from managing it: On September 2, 2026, the United Nations Environment Programme published a report titled “Limiting Overshoot: Navigating Exceedance of 1.5°C and Pathways Towards […]
Read more »Advancing Adaptation: Mapping Costs From Cooling To Coastal Defenses
January 7th, 2026
Via McKinsey, a new report on how the benefits of adaptation far outweigh its costs. Yet, the world today spends just one-third of the amount needed to protect everyone exposed to hazards to developed-economy standards. What would it cost to adapt as the Earth warms, and how much will get spent? At a glance Societies […]
Read more »Climate Adaptation More Than Covers Its Cost
December 31st, 2025
Via Project Syndicate, a look at how effective climate adaptation can strengthen countries’ resilience, protect vulnerable communities, and support economic growth. But while the world has the tools, the level of investment needed to close today’s adaptation gap, let alone to address likely future needs, has fallen far short. Humanity has long learned to live […]
Read more »Private Equity Eyes Up US$1.3 trillion Climate Adaptation Market by 2030
May 15th, 2025
Via EcoBusiness, a report on a new study that – while the public sector is expected to account for the bulk of adaptation funding – identifies six investable segments for private investors, from climate risk data providers to flood defense infrastructure: As the climate crisis intensifies, adaptation and resilience are emerging as the next frontier for […]
Read more »Climate Change Is Devouring Your Home’s Value
February 9th, 2025
Via The New York Times, commentary on the impact of climate change on home values: Houses in the Altadena and Pacific Palisades neighborhoods were still ablaze when talk turned to the cost of the Los Angeles firestorms and who would pay for it. Now it appears that the total damage and economic loss could be […]
Read more »Financing Climate Adaptation and Resilience
January 15th, 2025
Via Impact Alpha, a look at one investor focused on financing climate adaptation and resilience: When Jay Koh cofounded The Lightsmith Group in 2016, few people were talking about the need to invest in solutions to help people adapt to a changing climate. Eight years later, “climate adaptation” is the topic du jour. The dark […]
Read more »'Black Swans' are highly improbable events that come as a surprise, have major disruptive effects, and that are often rationalized after the fact as if they had been predictable to begin with. In our rapidly warming world, such events are occurring ever more frequently and include wildfires, floods, extreme heat, and drought.
'Green Shoots' is a term used to describe signs of economic recovery or positive data during a downturn. It references a period of growth and recovery, when plants start to show signs of health and life, and, therefore, has been employed as a metaphor for a recovering economy.
It is my hope that Black Swans / Green Shoots will help readers understand both climate-activated risk and opportunity so that you may invest in, advise, or lead organizations in the context of increasing pressures of global urbanization, resource scarcity, and perils relating to climate change. I believe that the tools of business and finance can help individuals, businesses, and global society make informed choices about who and what to protect, and I hope that this blog provides some insight into the policy and private sector tools used to assess investments in resilient reinforcement, response, or recovery.