Weather Prediction Markets Are Booming. Can They Improve Forecasts?
April 11th, 2026
Via Bloomberg, a look at how – from Kalshi and Polymarket to niche scientific platforms – traders are predicting the weather — and climate experts are debating the results: A few days before Christmas, Howard Qin was scrutinizing weather forecasts on two laptops at home in Shanghai when he noticed prices of contracts for New […]
Read more »Many State Flood Maps Are Not Up to Date. Connecticut Is Trying to Fix That
February 26th, 2026
Via Bloomberg, a look at a new tool offers the public detailed estimates of their flood exposure, but some worry risk disclosure will impact home values: Connecticut is taking an unusual step to confront a growing national problem: flood maps that lag reality. The state has launched a public climate-risk mapping tool where residents can see the […]
Read more »Insurance: At the Eye of the Climate Storm
February 10th, 2026
Watch this breakout session from the 2025 Harvard Climate Symposium. Featuring Peter Tufano, Harvard Business School; Dave Jones, Climate Risk Initiative; Barney Schauble, greenthread; and Ishita Sen, Harvard Business School. As climate change accelerates the frequency and severity of natural disasters, it is reshaping one of the world’s most vital yet often overlooked sectors: insurance. […]
Read more »Climate ‘Shock’ Is Eroding Some Home Values. New Data Shows How Much.
November 19th, 2025
Via New York Times, a look at how climate ‘shock’ is eroding home values: Even after she escaped rising floodwaters by wading away from her home in chest-deep water during Hurricane Rita in 2005, Sandra Rojas, now 69, stayed put. A fifth-generation resident of Lafitte, La., a small coastal community, she raised her home with […]
Read more »How Climate Risks Are Putting Home Insurance Out of Reach
September 18th, 2025
Via Yale’s e360, a look at how – after years underestimating the risks posed by climate-fueled disasters – the U.S. home insurance industry is in turmoil. In vulnerable areas, rising insurance costs are upending housing markets and communities, as homeowners scramble to try to find insurance they can afford. For decades, Sanibel Island, one of […]
Read more »Is the Future Insurable? How Climate Change Is Shrinking the Range of Insurability
August 18th, 2025
Via Probable Futures, a thoughtful commentary on how global climate change is shrinking the range of insurability: Spencer Glendon, Founder of Probable Futures, Carolyn Kousky, Founder of Insurance for Good and Associate Vice President of Economics and Policy at the Environmental Defense Fund, and Barney Schauble, Principal at greenthread, wrote this article in collaboration. Spencer, Carolyn, and Barney have […]
Read more »'Black Swans' are highly improbable events that come as a surprise, have major disruptive effects, and that are often rationalized after the fact as if they had been predictable to begin with. In our rapidly warming world, such events are occurring ever more frequently and include wildfires, floods, extreme heat, and drought.
'Green Shoots' is a term used to describe signs of economic recovery or positive data during a downturn. It references a period of growth and recovery, when plants start to show signs of health and life, and, therefore, has been employed as a metaphor for a recovering economy.
It is my hope that Black Swans / Green Shoots will help readers understand both climate-activated risk and opportunity so that you may invest in, advise, or lead organizations in the context of increasing pressures of global urbanization, resource scarcity, and perils relating to climate change. I believe that the tools of business and finance can help individuals, businesses, and global society make informed choices about who and what to protect, and I hope that this blog provides some insight into the policy and private sector tools used to assess investments in resilient reinforcement, response, or recovery.